I’ve seen references to the below in different formats, leading to comments like “the consumer just wont quit” and “the consumer is still strong given headwinds” While the chart looks strong, I argue the source of that strength is fading and likely lags other indicators. This strength started in the form of cash spent by […]
Author: tylerheld
“The Industrial Virality Complex”
The internet is full of hot takes around the series of collapses we just witnessed and I’ve debated how deep to go here. I found a thread that does a good job of providing a time series of events (with one suggested edit by me) and implications going forward. A big shout out to @professorstam.eth […]
How quickly things can change
As part of the FDIC QBP released on 2.28.23, the chart below showed a dramatic swing in unrealized losses in the Available-for-Sale and Held-to-Maturity Securities in bank investments. At first glance, so what? Its an unrealized loss of [likely] longer duration T-bills/bonds paying a fixed rate below what one can get from T-bills today given […]
JPow: “We will stay the course until the job is done.”
The almighty Jerome Powell addressed congress today as part of the Federal Reserve’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report. He first covered the Current Economic Situation and Outlook: Second, he covered Monetary Policy: How did the market react? Large banks were down on the day: We saw in the FDIC year-end ’22 numbers that retail portfolio’s are […]
Full-year and 4th quarter numbers are in.
Our fearless leader, FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg, has spoken. As time goes on I appreciate more the choice of words from those in leadership roles as they will inevitably be thrust under a microscope and analyzed/ over analyzed/ brought up in the future as a ‘gotcha’….all of this to say how well written this QBP […]
The Jan jobs number
The January jobs number garnered a lot of attention given it smashed estimates to the upside (187k estimated vs 517 actual ?). True to form, both bulls and bears are trying to make the case this number supports their expectations of the market looking forward. Lucky for us the Bureau of Labor Statistics breaks down […]
Capital One Q4 ’22 Results are in
Capital One is a fun bank to write about because of the unique make up of their loan portfolio. Pulling some numbers from their 4th Quarter Balance Sheet: Did your eyes catch what stands out in those numbers? Capital One generates a lot of interest income off of credit cards. What do we know generally […]
Are Net Interest Margins expanding or shrinking?
Given increases in interest rates, banks with interest rate sensitive assets (loans to businesses that are variable rate) are experiencing an increase in interest income at a higher velocity than their interest expenses are rising. This is intentional given the increase in interest income expands the Net Interest Margin of that institution. This is not […]