Marty Gruenberg and team released their Q2 ’23 Quarterly Banking Profile on 9/7 and given these reports provide dated analysis, I was unable to find anything surprising. What’s worth diving into is the forces behind shrinking loan growth across the industry. See below: As mentioned in the notes of this chart, year over year growth […]
Author: tylerheld
Is theš„Jobs number misleading?
ADP Released their June 2023 change in U.S. private employment this week and it came in hot, adding 497,000 jobs vs the 220,000 estimate. The market reacted negatively, as the likelihood of the Fed continuing to raise rates increases as job growth helps fuel inflation. Given this increase was largely driven by leisure and hospitality […]
2023 1st quarter numbers are in.
Marty Gruenberg is back with the Q1 QBP, and while I was eager to see data based evidence of a shift in banking to support the observational shifts we’ve all seen in headlines as of late, I realized this data is already stale. Marty was quick to call this out immediately – “…these results, especially […]
Consumer Spending Strength
I’ve seen references to the below in different formats, leading to comments like “the consumer just wont quit” and “the consumer is still strong given headwinds” While the chart looks strong, I argue the source of that strength is fading and likely lags other indicators. This strength started in the form of cash spent by […]
“The Industrial Virality Complex”
The internet is full of hot takes around the series of collapses we just witnessed and I’ve debated how deep to go here. I found a thread that does a good job of providing a time series of events (with one suggested edit by me) and implications going forward. A big shout out to @professorstam.eth […]
How quickly things can change
As part of the FDIC QBP released on 2.28.23, the chart below showed a dramatic swing in unrealized losses in the Available-for-Sale and Held-to-Maturity Securities in bank investments. At first glance, so what? Its an unrealized loss of [likely] longer duration T-bills/bonds paying a fixed rate below what one can get from T-bills today given […]
JPow: “We will stay the course until the job is done.”
The almighty Jerome Powell addressed congress today as part of the Federal Reserve’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report. He first covered the Current Economic Situation and Outlook: Second, he covered Monetary Policy: How did the market react? Large banks were down on the day: We saw in the FDIC year-end ’22 numbers that retail portfolio’s are […]
Full-year and 4th quarter numbers are in.
Our fearless leader, FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg, has spoken. As time goes on I appreciate more the choice of words from those in leadership roles as they will inevitably be thrust under a microscope and analyzed/ over analyzed/ brought up in the future as a ‘gotcha’….all of this to say how well written this QBP […]
The Jan jobs number
The January jobs number garnered a lot of attention given it smashed estimates to the upside (187k estimated vs 517 actual ?). True to form, both bulls and bears are trying to make the case this number supports their expectations of the market looking forward. Lucky for us the Bureau of Labor Statistics breaks down […]
Capital One Q4 ’22 Results are in
Capital One is a fun bank to write about because of the unique make up of their loan portfolio. Pulling some numbers from their 4th Quarter Balance Sheet: Did your eyes catch what stands out in those numbers? Capital One generates a lot of interest income off of credit cards. What do we know generally […]