ADP Released their June 2023 change in U.S. private employment this week and it came in hot, adding 497,000 jobs vs the 220,000 estimate. The market reacted negatively, as the likelihood of the Fed continuing to raise rates increases as job growth helps fuel inflation. Given this increase was largely driven by leisure and hospitality […]
Category: Show me the data
2023 1st quarter numbers are in.
Marty Gruenberg is back with the Q1 QBP, and while I was eager to see data based evidence of a shift in banking to support the observational shifts we’ve all seen in headlines as of late, I realized this data is already stale. Marty was quick to call this out immediately – “…these results, especially […]
Consumer Spending Strength
I’ve seen references to the below in different formats, leading to comments like “the consumer just wont quit” and “the consumer is still strong given headwinds” While the chart looks strong, I argue the source of that strength is fading and likely lags other indicators. This strength started in the form of cash spent by […]
Full-year and 4th quarter numbers are in.
Our fearless leader, FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg, has spoken. As time goes on I appreciate more the choice of words from those in leadership roles as they will inevitably be thrust under a microscope and analyzed/ over analyzed/ brought up in the future as a ‘gotcha’….all of this to say how well written this QBP […]
The Jan jobs number
The January jobs number garnered a lot of attention given it smashed estimates to the upside (187k estimated vs 517 actual ?). True to form, both bulls and bears are trying to make the case this number supports their expectations of the market looking forward. Lucky for us the Bureau of Labor Statistics breaks down […]
Are Net Interest Margins expanding or shrinking?
Given increases in interest rates, banks with interest rate sensitive assets (loans to businesses that are variable rate) are experiencing an increase in interest income at a higher velocity than their interest expenses are rising. This is intentional given the increase in interest income expands the Net Interest Margin of that institution. This is not […]